Could we really be trick-or-treating in the snow this year across the Southern Tier?
According to the latest weather models, it depends on who you ask.
According to WNY Stormchasers on Facebook, the AI European model seems to think we might see a few flakes flying.
The regular European model is less certain — maybe just a light coating.
And the GFS model? It’s saying, “nah, not this year.”
What most meteorologists do agree on is that there’s a hint of some kind of storm system brewing across the Midwest and Great Lakes around Halloween, and it could brush past us here in Olean, Portville, Ellicottville, Salamanca, Cuba, Allegany, and Franklinville.
Whether that means rain, snow, or just chilly winds is still way too early to tell.
A Look Back: Halloween Weather History in Western New York
If it did snow, it’d be a rare treat — or trick — for Western New York.
According to WGRZ in Buffalo, the warmest Halloween since 1990 came in 2003, when temperatures hit a sunny and breezy 69 degrees.
On the flip side, the coldest — and snowiest — Halloween in recent memory was 1993, when highs only reached 37 degrees and 2 to 3 inches of snow fell across the region.
In fact, Buffalo officially recorded 2.8 inches that day, making it the snowiest Halloween of the past 31 years.
Those living in the Southern Tier at the time will also remember a fair amount of snow on their trick-or-treating journeys.
So What’s the Real Forecast?
So yes, snow on October 31 has happened before — but it’s far from the norm.
Most years, it’s just cool, damp, and breezy. In other words, perfect hoodie-and-candy weather.
This year, the Weather Channel is predicting a high of 50 and low of 37 with a 40% chance of rain in the Southern Tier.
So, for now, let’s chalk these model predictions up as not a forecast, but just some early Halloween weather fun.
No need to grab the snow shovels just yet. But if a few flakes do flutter past the jack-o’-lanterns this year, it’ll definitely add to the spooky spirit!
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